Because agents are seemingly stuck in suboptimal habits, an exogenously-imposed constraint such as the London Underground strike of February 2014 brought lasting changes in behaviour.
A study conducted by members of the University of Oxford, University of Cambridge nd the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that in 2014, before a major TFL tube strike, 5% of London commuters regularly chose a suboptimal route to their place of work.
The study indicated that commuter behaviour changed after the strike and that many people found a more optimal route, sometimes avoiding the tube network altogether.
Flash-forward to 2020 and most European countries are either implementing a police-enforced ‘shutdown’ or at least following local social distancing measures.
Indeed, the effect of SARS-CoV-2 (Coronavirus) on our daily lives has ranged from marginal disruption to heart-breaking loss.
While on lockdown in Spain, a colleague discussed with me what adjustments we are making during lockdown and whether, as was the case after the strikes in London of 2014, any changes to our lifestyle will become permanent in the aftermath.
What lasting changes may remain when this is
all over?
We’ve seen vocal support for our National
Health Service (NHS): Not least following praise given by the Prime Minister, after
his in-patient treatment for the virus in early April. The spotlight is on the
NHS, as well as government promises to better support and fund its services.
The
NHS response to the crisis demonstrates not only the flexibility and resolve of
our healthcare system, but also its stark limitations.
The
limited capacity of our hospitals has been shown in the decisions that are made
daily to prioritise some patients over others, as well as the rapid
construction of makeshift hospitals, like the NHS Nightingale.
We
are also seeing hurried re-recruitment of healthcare professionals, currently
in retirement, to cope with the shortfall in staff. More recently, NHS England
has also opened recruitment calls to international medical graduates and
doctors, including refugees, to help tackle the COVID-19 health crisis.
To
help release this pressure, the UK population is advised to stay home and
observe social distancing, especially when displaying symptoms. We are also
instructed to interact with GPs, physios and other healthcare providers only
when necessary, or by calling 111.
This
change in public behaviour seems to be having a positive effect not only on the
spread of coronavirus but also on A&E admission levels; as a result,
A&E departments are seeing the lowest attendance since 2010. This could be
due to a mix of factors, but one is undoubtedly that we, as a population, are
taking a more responsible approach to our interaction with the NHS.
The government has promised to write off
£13.4 billion of historic NHS debt to help it recover in the medium-term.
This
is just one of many spending measures that would not have been predicted nor
justified politically pre-Coronavirus, but hopefully this is a sign that we are
prepared to better support the NHS in the longer-term.
This
in turn begs the question: could the current drive to fund and staff the NHS during
the crisis lead, in the long run, to a healthier NHS?
What
if we could reduce the strain on the health service in future by staying at
home and avoiding contact when we show flu-like symptoms that could lead to
hospital admissions for others within the population?
And what
if we could avoid flooding our A&E departments with avoidable injuries and
illnesses once the lockdown is ended and the pubs and clubs reopen?
Remote working
Now,
I usually promote remote-working with all the vigour of the newly-converted. But
this way of working is not for everyone, and particularly not right now.
Many
will feel it is harder to stay focussed. Are you watching Tiger King?
Some
will be using poorer equipment and mourn the loss of face-to-face interaction
with colleagues.
Childcare
and home-schooling are added pressures on remote working, as nurseries and
schools close.
However,
some companies may discover that with some investment in technology and
collaborative initiatives, they can become well-suited to home-working
arrangements, flexible working, or four-day working weeks.
There
is no doubt that many employees too will realise they no longer wish to spend
two hours every day on public transport and, in the long-term, we may see
people choosing to spend this time at home or with family, as they have been
forced to during lockdown.
Retail
Limits
on supermarket buying, social distancing and uncertainty about the future are affecting
our spending habits.
The
expression that we ‘spend money we don’t have to buy things we don’t want to
impress people we don’t like’ may have been true in the pre-Covid world.
However,
today salaries are being cut as employees are furloughed, we find ourselves
unable to buy things, and we are encouraged not to be social – at least not ‘IRL’.
The
predictions hold up against the data as analysts at GlobalData estimate the
amount that Britons will spend on clothes and shoes will tumble by 20% – or
£11.1bn – in 2020.
RetailX issued a survey quizzing consumers on how their shopping habits have changed during the crisis. It reveals that buyers have switched to making purchases online for home comfort and sustenance and, interestingly, 25% of those surveyed say that they believe they will carry on shopping in this new manner after the pandemic.
Fitness
What is replacing ostentatious purchases and
high street fashion? Home fitness.
At
the time of writing, it is almost impossible to purchase spinning bikes on
Amazon, and the increase in buying other home gym equipment exceeds any
Christmas/Black Friday sale in memory.
That
many of these bikes will be on the second-hand market again by Christmas at a
far lower price is also very possible…
But
getting fit does seem to preoccupy many of those who are furloughed at home.
We
see this in the rise in fitness app use, the spike in purchases of gym
equipment, and increasingly in millions of Brits and their children gathering
to watch personal trainers like Joe Wicks online each morning for “PE”.
We
are also hearing, anecdotally at least, that more people are taking up their
1-hour exercise per day allotted by the government during lockdown.
I see it very clearly where I live, just outside the Lake District. Trails which were usually empty apart from a few other runners are now packed with families walking together.
If
taking daily family walks is to become more commonplace, this may at least make
us a little healthier and a little happier in the long-term.
It
would certainly be a positive development if we emerged from this horrendous
health crisis with a better understanding of the pressures on our NHS, and a
more responsible attitude to our own health and lifestyle.
Forcing us to forgo many of the things we took for granted pre-lockdown may in fact show us what we really need to function afterwards: spend less frivolously, exercise more and work more flexibly.
